By Paul Bubny
Spring may be just around the corner, but in the view of investors, it’s already here. Marcus & Millichap said Monday that its quarterly Investor Sentiment Survey Index has reached a new high, with the eight-point increase from the prior quarter to 187 reflecting a level of investor confidence not matched in the survey’s 10-year history.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents to MMI’s latest survey plan to increase their holdings in the coming year by an average of 15%. An additional 26% expect their investments to hold the line during 2015, while just 6% said that their real estate portfolio may decrease over the next year.
MMI attributes the positive sentiment to several different factors. First and foremost, it reflects continued performance improvement across all property types. “The trends are building momentum, especially for the property types that have lagged behind through the recovery so far,” says Hessam Nadji, chief strategy officer and director of specialty divisions at MMI. “Those sectors, particularly office and retail, are now beginning to catch up,.”
Slightly more than half the respondents, or 51%, either strongly or somewhat agree that property fundamentals will improve faster over the next 12 months. Twenty-seven percent were neutral in their views, while the remaining 22% do not believe that improving fundamentals will accelerate.
Against a backdrop of still-low interest rates, strong job growth and retail sales growth in the US,, a majority of commercial real estate investors expect the value of properties in their portfolios to increase over the next 12 months. Especially optimistic re multifamily investors, with 78% expecting values to increase this year, by an average of 5.3%.
In the industrial sector, 68% of survey respondents believe the value of their properties will increase, with an average 4.4%. Similar sentiment is expressed by retail investors: 68% expect a 5.8% in value over the next 12 months. For the hotel sector, 63% of respondents expect values will increase by an average of 5%.
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